Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Will Barisan Nasional (National Coalition) lose in GE 14? / Adakah BN akan kalah dalam Pilihanraya 14?

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GE 14 Malaysia
GE 14:Who will win the election?

The 14th general  election (GE 14) will be held before August  2018. THE  ISSUE THAT EVERY ONE IS TALKING ABOUT IS WHETHER BN (the ruling coalition) WILL RETAIN PUTRAJAYA. My answer to this is a cautious YES. I believe BN will be like LDP of Japan. I believe it will lose a lot of seats , Malay and Chinese seats. The political situation in Malaysia is as hazy as the haze that is enveloping the country. The  political climate in the country looks very gloomy  . Despite being gloomy , the race relation among the various ethnic groups is very stable and strong. Only  small elements in the opposing parties (opposition and ruling coalition) would want to play the race card. I don't think Malaysians would want a repeat of May 13- a big race riot in 1969. The younger generation in Malaysia is overall race or color blind and very moderate in their political approach and they say they see things. The young are definitely  very pragmatic and modern. This is my take on why BN would lose Putrajaya in the next election.
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BN will lose?

1. The Najib Razak factor. Najib is the main reason why Barisan Nasional (the ruling government) would be defeated. Najib has not come out in full force and transparent manner to inform and explain to  the rakyat (public) as to how he gets the 2.6 billion ringgit into his personal account. He has not explained clearly and explicily as who has given or donated the money into his account . Najib calims that he use the money only for the parties and not or his personal use. All the answers given by his ministers are vague , inadequate and sometimes outright  funny. He has not spoken explicitly and clearly the issue surrounding the IMDB investment. He has not said anything about the the money in the opening of the  Dewan Rakyat ( Parliament) today and all the answers to the questions were answered by his deputy finance minister.
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Najib factor

2. Corruption.  Another reason for the defeat is the perceived rampant corruption by the ruling party. It's perceived by the rakyat that the ruling government in beset by systemic corruption in all fronts. The feeling is also that the government is not taking a very aggressive stance to fight corruption. The issue of corruption is left hanging with no actions (eg Mara, a department to look after the Bumiputeras and Felda,a huge government backed  plantation holding). Only the small fish are given the punishment. The sharks are all let go where as the small fish are given the maximum sentencing.

3. Luxury life of the political leaders. Malaysia is a country well known for its large number of people in the middle class group. Its GDP is around US 12,000  The are thousands of rich people (millionaires and billionaires) but they don't overtly display or flaunt their wealth. So the political leaders should also be modest but this is not the case. They show their Birkin hand bags, the flaunt their jewelry and expensive watches, They show their massive palaces and expensive cars, yachts  and jets. Where do they get the money? How much do they earn? The ordinary Malaysians have been asking all these questions.

4. The Internet factor. This is another importation factor that decides who wins the next election. Previously, the ruling government has a tight reign on the media. Today and at present this is not the case. The government could not hide any of their actions. Every bad moment and bad actions are on  the internet or Facebook or in the Instagram almost instantaneously. The opposition cannot claim that they are not given publicity as they get all of it. The ruling government is totally outclassed and decimated in this fight. The opposition parties have the upper hand. The pro government machinery is totally outclassed by the pro opposition bloggers and the RBA (red bean armies- pro-DAP or opposition members).

These are the main factors that  decide on the demise of the BN in Malaysia. In order for Barisan Nasional to continue ruling the country they have to work with PAS. Most of the fence sitters and disgruntled UMNO members will give their  votes to  PAS. I think PAS will get the majority of the seats in the parliament. DAP will only retain Penang and some Chnese majority seats in Perak and JOHOR. Amanah, the PAS splinter group will be totally decimated. They are the puppets of DAP who is longing to take over Putrajaya. Without PAS in the Pakatan Harapan , the dream just fades away

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