Thursday, January 21, 2016

PAS the biggest winner in the coming general election / BN will have a Unity Government in GE 14

Image result for PAS
PAS the biggest winner in the next general election
Many years ago Malaysia's political situations  were strong and  stable but  it would always be tainted with  quiet race tensions .Although stable, the situation was actually precarious and dangerous because the perceived ethnic confrontations due to race based parties fighting for their shrinking shares. But luckily nothing sinister happened then because the country was strong economically and the people refused to be entangled onto senseless nobody win  ethnic strifes.  (But isolated inter ethnic cases would  still happen because there are always lone wolves who are trying to stir people's prejudice  to argue and take sides and support their own community and this you can find  anywhere in the world including in the States or in the so called western countries and thus nothing serious). 

 But the country today is less stable, fluid politically, and economically in shambles but the future is intact, bright  and better prospects because the instability now is not between Malay against the Chinese or Malay against the Indian but now it is between the corrupt vs the good. between the good people vs the sinners  The conflict in Malaysia is now less about race and religious conflicts . It's now about promoting good governance , fighting corruption, fighting against mismanagement,  and against the misuse of power. The political scenario in Malaysia in the coming election will witness a quite different landscape that we have not seen before due these hotly contested issues. I bet that  the biggest winner in  Malaysia's coming election will be PAS (The Islamic based party). Below are my take on  why PAS will be the biggest winner  of the  14 general election in Malaysia in 2018.

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DAP  will only control Pulau Pinang in 2018
1. People in droves will vote for PAS because they are disillusioned with what is happening with the country under Najib.  Most people regardless of ethnicity believed that the country is in a mess. Some of the big issues include education.  Only yesterday the government is cutting back on scholarships given to JPA scholars. This has never happened before even when we were facing the economic crunch in the  90s. And last night politically ,there is a possible no vote confidence against Mukriz Mahathir the Menteri Besar of Kedah. The pro Najib camp is hitting back at Mahathir by  trying to oust Mukriz Mahathir via the state representatives and the acting Sultan of Kedah. The fluid and the helpless situations in Malaysia are making ordinary people tired of UMNO ( the check and balance apparatuses have gone kaput under this administration)  and their solution is  to wait for the general election and they will vote for PAS as they have no other alternatives. They vote Pas not because they like the party but because they hate the seemingly  corrupt UMNO the most.

2. The DAP will be able to win Pulau Pinang in Chinese majority seats but the all Malay seats will go to either PAS or some to PKR because of  the split votes. The party will also win the Chinese majority seats in Selangor , Perak, Johor and Melaka. The Malaysia Chinese until now have stayed with the DAP and their stand is unshakable. To them, MCA or GERAKAN are  stooges to UMNO. The DAP,  however , will get less popular votes compared to the last general election. In the last general election, quite a number of Malays in fact voted for DAP  when there were no Malay candidates. The Malays in the coming election however will vote PAS first and UMNO second if PAS does not stand for the election in the constituent. Malay votes will definitely not  go to DAP. Only.Only some votes will go to PKR as the people see the party as a  platform for Anwar's fight for freedom.
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PKR will lose Selangor in 14 GE
3. The Malays will not vote Amanah because it is clearly seen as a stooge to racist DAP party even though DAP  claims that they are a Malaysian party . They will not vote for Amanah because  the President of Amanah lacks Islamic credibility and also seen as a parachute leader whose moral standing is questionable.. Amanah will be decimated after the 14th  general election . Amanah can only play a minor role in getting a few votes for DAP and nothing more than that.
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UMNO will  form Unity govt with PAS in 2018
4. PKR  without Anwar will definitely lose the Selangor state because of the ouster of PAS from the Opposition pact.  PAS is actually the pillar of the pact but they did not play their cards well because of strategic failures on the part the party. The pact was hijacked and dictated  by the Lims and the DAP. The DAP was seen as strong and powerful because they were supported by PAS and PKR. Without the party (PAS)  the DAP does not carry any more weight. 

PAS will be the biggest winner in the next election. Barisan Nasional will be only able to govern the country with the blessing and support from PAS. The scenario of  the possibility of having a PAS PM in the next election is not without credibility . But I dont think PAS would be able to run the country well, they need the UMNO/BN who has the experience and talent take the country through the difficult times. Hence, a unity government with BN is the likely scenario.  

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